Désolé, j'ai pas encore eu le temps de traduire cette page. En fait, pour la petite histoire, c'est le sujet de mon dernier oral d'anglais, alors je me suis dis, puisque je l'ai tapé, autant que ça serve à grande échelle et voilà!
Part 1 - What is the Year 2000 problem ?
Part 2 - The actual situation :
2a - Why is this a problem now ?
2b - Two way to obtain dates .
2c - How bad is the Y2K problem ?
2d - When does the Y2K bomb explode ?
Part 3 - Solutions and possibilities :
3a - Are they solutions ?
3b - As an individual, what can you do ?
A few numbers
Vocabulary
Part 1 : What
is the Year 2000 problem ? [top]
To reduce the costs of computers in the 60s and 70s, programmers
have chosen to delete the first two numbers of the years in the
RTC ( Real Time Clock ) of their systems.
Example : 01/07/1976 was stored as six digit fields : 010776 ...
and not as eight digit fields : 01071976 .
In the 60s, programmers haven’t hope that the computers and
the systems will be used during so many years and they
haven’t mind any further problems.
Part 2 : The situation near
the Y2K ? [top]
a - Why is there a problem now ?
When the computers became popular in the 80s, the old systems
were upgraded by new graphical presentation, but instead of being
replaced, they grew in size.
Because most of the old systems were not designed to run multiple
centuries, most will either produce incorrect
information or simply fail at the end of this century.
It doesn’t looks like a big problem to solve, but it
involves a great deal of financial and human resources.
2b - Two way to obtain dates :
There are two ways to obtain the date for a software :
1 - by consulting the BIOS or the exploitation system (ex
:Windows95). If the BIOS has been modified to support the next
millennium problem, it will give the software and the
Exploitation system a four digit date.
2 - by consulting the RTC. It’s fastest of a few
milliseconds and this gain of time is important for some special
applications and software. But it can’t be modified easily.
If just the BIOS have been modified, it will produce a error for
the system.
2c - How bad is the Y2K problem ?
The problem will affect most PC based applications which use the
RTC. The Macintosh systems will not be affected.
According to the GARTNER Group, it will cost more than $ 600
billion world-wide. The economist Ed Yardini estimates in
January 1998 the probability of a Y2K induced recession to be 40
%. In June of the same year, he raised his recession probability
from 40 % to 60 % to 70 %.
It wouldn’t be a so big problem if governments and companies
have dealt with it earlier, but now it is a raced against the
clock.
2d - When does the Y2K bomb explode ?
For many companies and organisations who deals with orders and
previsions in the next months or years, the problem will occur
earlier than the 1/1/2000.
We can retain three critical dates :
1 - The 9th of September 1999 : Old software consider the code
9999 as a « end-of-file » procedure ; the coded date is 9-9-99.
2 - The 1st of January 2000 : The internal clock of computers and
electronically based machines, which just know dates as 6 digit
numbers, will regress to the 1st of January 1900.
3 - The 28th of February 2000 : Even if they are compatible with
the third millennium, some systems will jump the 29th of February
2000, because the year 2000 is a leap-year, the year 1900 was
not.
Part 3 :
Solutions and possibilities : [top]
3a - Are they solutions ?
The first solutions consist in modifying the BIOS ( Basic Input
Output System ) date. Most of the applications and software
consult the BIOS to know the date.
The operation is not very expensive, just adding a few lines in a
program. But this is not a solution because most applications are
consulting the RTC too (see Part 2 - 2b).
An other solutions consist in adding a special component aside
the processor. The component will intercept the data transfer
from the BIOS to the software and modify it into a eight digit
number. A American firm installs computers with this system since
1992. The cost is only a few pounds.
But these solutions, called « puncture-patch », don’t
satisfy some experts who thinks that the massive add of these
programs or components will affect the maintenance and the
possibilities of a system.
3b - As an individual, what can you do ?
First, you need to keep well informed. Given the potential of the
disaster, there has been little media coverage of the Y2K bomb.
You will certainly hear some more during the next months, as some
organisations begin to feel the sting.
You might think that the disaster will not affect you or your
family but think again ! Everybody depends on computers directly
or indirectly. You need to make sure that any essential equipment
( bank, employer, utility companies ) that you depend on is «
Y2K compliant ».
A few numbers
: [top]
· Cost of the Year 2000 problems : Between $500 billion and
$1000 billion (the approximate gain of money done by computers
since they’re used to increase productivity ! ).
· In January 1998, Ed Yardini estimates the probability of a Y2K
induced recession to be 40 %.
In June of the same year, this probability raised to 70 %.
· Three critical dates :
1. The 9th of September 1999 : The code « 9999 » (this date is
coded as 9/9/99) is a « end-of-file » order for computer
programs.
2. The 1st of January 2000 : Some computers and systems will pass
from 31/12/1999 to 1/1/1900, because of the 6 digit fields for
dates.
3. The 28th of February 2000 : The year 1900 was not a leap-year,
but the year 2000 is one. Some computers will pass from the
28/02/2000 to the 1/03/2000.
· Some studies in France showed recently that more than 80 % of
the companies (PME & PMI) haven’t placed any resources
to check if their systems were Y2K compliant.
· 12 % of these companies are self declaring that they will pass
the next millennium without problems.
· 73 % of these companies have said that they will check their
systems when the Y2K will be closer.
· For a software of 1 billion lines, we can estimate that there
is a date all the 50.000 lines. Some existing software check and
correct them for us, but they miss 20 % of the dates !
Vocabulary :
[top]
B.I.O.S. : The Basic Input Output System is a software which
organises the basic functions of a computer and checks the system
when switched on. It is written into a electronic component that
we can modify.
R.T.C. : The Real Time Clock is an electronic component which
always keeps the hour and date in a computer. It is inside a
several-function component, so it’s hard to modify it.
Puncture-patch : It is a software or a electronic component which
corrects a error. Some companies, of computers and software
industry, have get into the habit of adding puncture-patch to
their products, making them slower and complicate to maintain.
par Alain-Pierre Forsans
J'espère avoir été assez clair, si vous avez des remarques, des questions, des suggestions, cliquez ici.